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/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

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File: 1673358983065.pdf (3.12 MB, 67x118, 230109_Cancian_FirstBattle….pdf)

 No.464023

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

>CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.

Details in pdf rel.

Reminder that Rand Institute had a similar docu ~4 years ago where they predicted that unless the USA starts a war against China by 2025, the war will be almost unwinnable.

Reminder of based Cockshott's analysis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1RRw6kDNWk
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 No.464024

>>464023
>Reminder that Rand Institute had a similar docu ~4 years ago where they predicted that unless the USA starts a war against China by 2025, the war will be almost unwinnable.
Forgot sauce: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html
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 No.464033

>>464023
Randcorp does a lot of very good modeling, however, you will never get to see most of those. This is likely very heavily weighted for worst case scenario in order to ask for more military funding. Wargaming was also done in the leadup to the First Gulf War, which predicted tens of thousands of coalition losses and massive amounts of devastation in the whole region. That being said, I do not think this one would go the same way, nor do I think that China would attempt a conventional seaborne invasion. China has certainly learned that wars are expensive and prefers to use soft power to acquire what they want. Will it work in Taiwan? My guess is no, however, they may have better relations in the future, which would make an invasion meaningless.
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 No.464039

>>464033
t. CIA
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 No.464040

>>464023
Lol so the results are that china singlehandedly can fight the axis in wwiii, and
>high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years
win,
and whoever wrote this still spins it with that title. Wow. What a realistic scenario btw.
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 No.464041

>>464023
I think that China will try to use a sea-blockade to undo US influence over Taiwan if the situation gets too tense. It might take a few months or years, but that will likely work. The chances of the US being able of breaking that are very slim, the Chinese have large quantities of sophisticated anti ship missiles that will chew up basically any attempt at naval power projection.

China doesn't really want to fight a war in Taiwan. They consider it a part of China and they don't want to shoot up one of their provinces. That said it's somewhat more likely that at some point in the future China will seek to destroy US weapons that have been stationed in Taiwan. From their perspective that's US weapons on Chinese soil.

Another aspect is that China really hates all those US military bases that have popped up in it's vicinity. Shooting up those bases could make more sense than shooting up Taiwan because it would weaken the US ability for power projections in that region, and of course the ability for supporting Taiwan independence/secession. That might be a way for China to get Taiwan back in a mostly intact condition , and the stuff that ends up getting destroyed in such a war would be mostly stuff from the US military.

The game the US imperial bourgeoisie is playing is to make others destroy/damage each other. So the highest level of a Chinese victory is if they can prevent direct war where Chinese and Taiwanese soldiers fight against each other. If the US imperial goons however still manage to manufacture that Taiwan war, and force the Chinese to convert their massive industrial base to war production, they will get the ability to scuttle the US empire, and they'll likely use it.
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 No.464043

File: 1673442626147-0.png (45.83 KB, 840x239, 1.png)

File: 1673442626147-1.png (17.29 KB, 407x155, 2.png)

>>464041
>I think that China will try to use a sea-blockade to undo US influence over Taiwan if the situation gets too tense. It might take a few months or years, but that will likely work.
weeks, dude

Globalized capitalist countries are simply unprepared for North Korea or Cuba-style self-sufficiency. Within weeks possibly famine will happen. Their industry is export oriented, which means it would collapse too, and le services sector is entirely useless in such scenario.
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 No.464045

>>464039
No, but I do own the CIA outfit. Now tell me about Bane. Why does he wear the mask?
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 No.464376

>>464033
TBF Iraq threw the gulf war by actually believing the US would stick to its cease fire agreement.
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 No.464378

>>464376
Iraq fucked the war by thinking that the Saudis would not allow the coalition to use their territory as a staging point. Well, they were fucked anyway when the F-117 and the B-2 wiped out their air defenses, but they should have lasted longer than a few weeks.
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 No.464379

File: 1674219528049.jpg (132.85 KB, 510x755, MV5BMTg3MTEzOTQzNV5BMl5Ban….jpg)

>>464378
>they should have lasted longer than a few weeks.
Saddam's government was already crumbling before the invasion. There was legitimate (if short sighted) support on the ground for toppling his rule. I think if the Americans have waited a few years more, they could have color "revolutioned" the shit out of the country. But this was in the era right before the burgers shifted to using color "revolutions," and the argument could be made that their shift was a direct result from the blowbacks from Iraq/Afghanistan. The thing is, the USA manufactured/had a casus belli and the establishment wasn't going to spoil such a splendid opportunity.

In any case, I'm recommending picrel movie. Putting aside its "muh democracy" fetish, I think it captures nicely does crucial weeks inside the US gov.
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 No.464381

>>464379
>I think it captures nicely does crucial weeks inside the US gov.
*those

also, we have captchas now

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