/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

I'm trying to find a scale to measure the "power tug". I'm analyzing the recent conflict in Ukraine in order to do that:

<The imperial bourgeoisie in the US won Round 1 in the ukro-war, because they managed to manufacture a war right on Russia's door-step that Russia didn't want and failed to prevent.

<The Russian Federation however won Round 2, they proved that Russia still is a super power that can destroy a sizable country without major consequences to it self, and that the US can neither cripple their economy via econ-war, nor exhaust their military resources via proxy-war.
Ukraine is now more or less a destroyed country, that's what loosing a war means, Russia basically is undamaged (bar a few scuffs in some border towns) just in case anybody is confused.

<The US has, on balance, lost this geopolitical battle because it did not achieve it's primary goal of imposing another 1990s neo-liberal shock doctrine on Russia or outright balkanizing the Russian federation into subservient ethno-nationalist vassal-states.

<However the US still has to be considered more powerful because Russia wasn't able to frustrate US attempts at manufacturing this war.
If you're a glowy or a nato-media-brain and want to complain about my framing of the Ukraine war please do so in the Ukraine thread

If we apply this scale for the next power tug in Asia.

The question becomes whether China is powerful enough to frustrate US attempts at creating a Taiwan-war with a similar pattern. China is certainly more powerful than Russia, but is it powerful enough ?

I would say that there are 2 levels of preventing a Taiwan war.

The golden path is an expression of pure diplomatic power like how China changed Saudi-Arabia's geopolitical status from US Oil-Vassal to mostly neutral. If this comes to pass and Taiwan gets "diplomatized" the age of imperialism ends bloodlessly and unceremoniously with nothing but a cacophony of corporate media seething.

The silver path is where China undoes US political influence with a sea-blockade of Taiwan. All Taiwanese trade would be diverted through China where they can screen out US military logistics which would render a Taiwan-war impossible without hindering commercial trade too much. If this comes to pass it won't be as smooth. Taiwan would likely have internal political instability like in Hong Kong a few years ago. The US would likely try to poke holes into the sea blockade, so there could be a few naval skirmishes as well. The US would also try to fuck with Chinese trade routes. So a bumpy ride all around but the age of imperialism still ends without a big slaughter fest, which is nothing to sneeze at.

There are unknowns, China could have found geopolitical pressure points elsewhere in the world that might give them enough leverage to force the US to back off, but that's entirely speculative.