I'm trying to find a scale to measure the "power tug". I'm analyzing the recent conflict in Ukraine in order to do that:
<The imperial bourgeoisie in the US won Round 1 in the ukro-war, because they managed to manufacture a war right on Russia's door-step that Russia didn't want and failed to prevent.
<The Russian Federation however won Round 2, they proved that Russia still is a super power that can destroy a sizable country without major consequences to it self, and that the US can neither cripple their economy via econ-war, nor exhaust their military resources via proxy-war.
Ukraine is now more or less a destroyed country, that's what loosing a war means, Russia basically is undamaged (bar a few scuffs in some border towns) just in case anybody is confused.
<The US has, on balance, lost this geopolitical battle because it did not achieve it's primary goal of imposing another 1990s neo-liberal shock doctrine on Russia or outright balkanizing the Russian federation into subservient ethno-nationalist vassal-states.
<However the US still has to be considered more powerful because Russia wasn't able to frustrate US attempts at manufacturing this war.
If you're a glowy or a nato-media-brain and want to complain about my framing of the Ukraine war please do so in the Ukraine thread
If we apply this scale for the next power tug in Asia.
The question becomes whether China is powerful enough to frustrate US attempts at creating a Taiwan-war with a similar pattern. China is certainly more powerful than Russia, but is it powerful enough ?
I would say that there are 2 levels of preventing a Taiwan war.
The golden path is an expression of pure diplomatic power like how China changed Saudi-Arabia's geopolitical status from US Oil-Vassal to mostly neutral. If this comes to pass and Taiwan gets "diplomatized" the age of imperialism ends bloodlessly and unceremoniously with nothing but a cacophony of corporate media seething.
The silver path is where China undoes US political influence with a sea-blockade of Taiwan. All Taiwanese trade would be diverted through China where they can screen out US military logistics which would render a Taiwan-war impossible without hindering commercial trade too much. If this comes to pass it won't be as smooth. Taiwan would likely have internal political instability like in Hong Kong a few years ago. The US would likely try to poke holes into the sea blockade, so there could be a few naval skirmishes as well. The US would also try to fuck with Chinese trade routes. So a bumpy ride all around but the age of imperialism still ends without a big slaughter fest, which is nothing to sneeze at.
There are unknowns, China could have found geopolitical pressure points elsewhere in the world that might give them enough leverage to force the US to back off, but that's entirely speculative.
I don't see how the US can possibly pull off an Afghanistan/Ukraine with Taiwan, the island is just too small.
I hadn't considered the size of Taiwan. Can you explain why it being small prevents it from being instrumentalized like Afghanistan/Ukraine ?
I don't see how the US could possibly hide their clandestine activities in an area that small. It's not like there's some cave in the mountains in the middle of nowhere that nobody knows about, everyone knows where everything is in Taiwan.
I guess that makes sense.
Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S.
<Beijing will pay Havana several billion dollars for eavesdropping facility
<China and Cuba have reached a secret agreement for China to establish an electronic eavesdropping facility on the island, in a brash new geopolitical challenge by Beijing to the U.S., according to U.S. officials familiar with highly classified intelligence.
<An eavesdropping facility in Cuba, roughly 100 miles from Florida, would allow Chinese intelligence services to scoop up electronic communications throughout the southeastern U.S., where many military bases are located, and monitor U.S. ship traffic.
<“While I cannot speak to this specific report, we are well aware of—and have spoken many times to—the People’s Republic of China’s efforts to invest in infrastructure around the world that may have military purposes, including in this hemisphere,” John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, said.https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4159286/posts
First is this true ?
Second are the Chinese doing this for leverage to get the US to back off from Taiwan ?
I'll believe Cuba's sincerity when they finally decide to shut down Guantanamo.
Guantanamo bay is a US Naval base. Are you seriously demanding the Cubans storm a large US military base to prove their sincerity to you ? They would suffer a lot of casualties and probably brutal retaliation by the US.
Unless you have a clever scheme to make the US want to close up shop… the cost benefit calculation of brute-forcing the issue doesn't ad up. Maybe the Chinese spy base will spook them, but i doubt it since the Russians already re-opened their spy base in Cuba a while ago.
That should've been enough to tell you this was fake. Everyone makes up bullshit about China and especially Cuba, tenfold if it's some conserative rag
>>470286>That should've been enough to tell you this was fake.
FIY Freerepublic just "re-posted", the Cuba spy-base hoax was originally published by the Wall-Street Journal.
>Everyone makes up bullshit about China and especially Cuba
Yeah it's so annoying that a huge percentage of the media landscape has gone to shit. I mean it was never great, if you dig through newspaper archives you can find loads of cringe. They added lots of propaganda spin and they often omitted information and context but the big news-papers did somewhat refrain from outright lying.
Short term thinking and panic.