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/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

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File: 1685042578622.jpg ( 76.22 KB , 1060x560 , tug.jpg )


I'm trying to find a scale to measure the "power tug". I'm analyzing the recent conflict in Ukraine in order to do that:

<The imperial bourgeoisie in the US won Round 1 in the ukro-war, because they managed to manufacture a war right on Russia's door-step that Russia didn't want and failed to prevent.

<The Russian Federation however won Round 2, they proved that Russia still is a super power that can destroy a sizable country without major consequences to it self, and that the US can neither cripple their economy via econ-war, nor exhaust their military resources via proxy-war.

Ukraine is now more or less a destroyed country, that's what loosing a war means, Russia basically is undamaged (bar a few scuffs in some border towns) just in case anybody is confused.

<The US has, on balance, lost this geopolitical battle because it did not achieve it's primary goal of imposing another 1990s neo-liberal shock doctrine on Russia or outright balkanizing the Russian federation into subservient ethno-nationalist vassal-states.

<However the US still has to be considered more powerful because Russia wasn't able to frustrate US attempts at manufacturing this war.

If you're a glowy or a nato-media-brain and want to complain about my framing of the Ukraine war please do so in the Ukraine thread

If we apply this scale for the next power tug in Asia.

The question becomes whether China is powerful enough to frustrate US attempts at creating a Taiwan-war with a similar pattern. China is certainly more powerful than Russia, but is it powerful enough ?

I would say that there are 2 levels of preventing a Taiwan war.

The golden path is an expression of pure diplomatic power like how China changed Saudi-Arabia's geopolitical status from US Oil-Vassal to mostly neutral. If this comes to pass and Taiwan gets "diplomatized" the age of imperialism ends bloodlessly and unceremoniously with nothing but a cacophony of corporate media seething.

The silver path is where China undoes US political influence with a sea-blockade of Taiwan. All Taiwanese trade would be diverted through China where they can screen out US military logistics which would render a Taiwan-war impossible without hindering commercial trade too much. If this comes to pass it won't be as smooth. Taiwan would likely have internal political instability like in Hong Kong a few years ago. The US would likely try to poke holes into the sea blockade, so there could be a few naval skirmishes as well. The US would also try to fuck with Chinese trade routes. So a bumpy ride all around but the age of imperialism still ends without a big slaughter fest, which is nothing to sneeze at.

There are unknowns, China could have found geopolitical pressure points elsewhere in the world that might give them enough leverage to force the US to back off, but that's entirely speculative.


I don't see how the US can possibly pull off an Afghanistan/Ukraine with Taiwan, the island is just too small.


I hadn't considered the size of Taiwan. Can you explain why it being small prevents it from being instrumentalized like Afghanistan/Ukraine ?


I don't see how the US could possibly hide their clandestine activities in an area that small. It's not like there's some cave in the mountains in the middle of nowhere that nobody knows about, everyone knows where everything is in Taiwan.


I guess that makes sense.


File: 1686253554802.jpg ( 82.65 KB , 1920x1080 , cubo spy o-fce.jpg )

Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S.

<Beijing will pay Havana several billion dollars for eavesdropping facility

<China and Cuba have reached a secret agreement for China to establish an electronic eavesdropping facility on the island, in a brash new geopolitical challenge by Beijing to the U.S., according to U.S. officials familiar with highly classified intelligence.

<An eavesdropping facility in Cuba, roughly 100 miles from Florida, would allow Chinese intelligence services to scoop up electronic communications throughout the southeastern U.S., where many military bases are located, and monitor U.S. ship traffic.

<“While I cannot speak to this specific report, we are well aware of—and have spoken many times to—the People’s Republic of China’s efforts to invest in infrastructure around the world that may have military purposes, including in this hemisphere,” John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, said.


First is this true ?

Second are the Chinese doing this for leverage to get the US to back off from Taiwan ?


I'll believe Cuba's sincerity when they finally decide to shut down Guantanamo.


File: 1686256799255.jpg ( 134.58 KB , 1280x698 , guatanamo bay US naval bas….jpg )

Guantanamo bay is a US Naval base. Are you seriously demanding the Cubans storm a large US military base to prove their sincerity to you ? They would suffer a lot of casualties and probably brutal retaliation by the US.

Unless you have a clever scheme to make the US want to close up shop… the cost benefit calculation of brute-forcing the issue doesn't ad up. Maybe the Chinese spy base will spook them, but i doubt it since the Russians already re-opened their spy base in Cuba a while ago.


Spy-base was a hoax

Debunked: Media falsely claims China is building spy base in Cuba
<Major media outlets claimed China is building a secret station in Cuba to spy on the US, citing anonymous intelligence officials. But the Pentagon admitted this story is false. It is part of a larger information warfare campaign against Beijing, and could sabotage any attempts at diplomacy.


So the US government is now acknowledging that de-dollarization is happening.



>Free Republic
That should've been enough to tell you this was fake. Everyone makes up bullshit about China and especially Cuba, tenfold if it's some conserative rag


>That should've been enough to tell you this was fake.
FIY Freerepublic just "re-posted", the Cuba spy-base hoax was originally published by the Wall-Street Journal.

>Everyone makes up bullshit about China and especially Cuba

Yeah it's so annoying that a huge percentage of the media landscape has gone to shit. I mean it was never great, if you dig through newspaper archives you can find loads of cringe. They added lots of propaganda spin and they often omitted information and context but the big news-papers did somewhat refrain from outright lying.


Short term thinking and panic.


Many people assume the ongoing push towards a tiktok ban is about suppressing solidarity with Palestinians.
Ben Norton's take is that it should be seen in the context of the anti-china tech-war ?

Is he right ?


I honestly think the greatest utility in this move is to further the window of acceptable online censorship in the US. Controlling speech and information is a lot more useful than depriving one Chinese tech company of US profits (presumably derived from datamining).


>I honestly think the greatest utility in this move is to further the window of acceptable online censorship in the US.
No the exact opposite is happening, tiktok has like 150 million US users and a big chunk of those are pissed. That's likely going to politicize a lot more people on tech rights and digital liberties.

>Controlling speech and information is a lot more useful than depriving one Chinese tech company of US profits (presumably derived from datamining).

Maybe, it's difficult to figure this one out. It could be that the driving force behind this is the likes of Facebook who want to get rid of competition.

I got the impression that the censorship narrative controle gang in the US doesn't want to use official methods, because those are subject to political pressure.


These clumsy stories get worse every year. The US is no longer making decisions. The transnational elite wanted that war for themselves. Nothing in Ukraine benefits the US, not that the US will be a concern.

The people writing this make it clear they want the US to break apart and if they create enough faggotry, they'll get stupid people to do stupid shit and make us all suffer.


Here's an interesting article

China Prepares in Central Asia to Withstand Any Western Isolation Efforts



reposing part of somebody else's effort post

>why the capitalist West consider China post-Deng capitalist and not socialist?

>In my opinion, there are two main reasons for this insistence on the narrative that China converted to capitalism somewhere during Deng’s ascension:

>The USA literally made a deal with China in order to isolate the USSR in 1972 (when Mao Zedong was still in power, alive and strong — see his famous handshake with Nixon, one of the most famous photographs of Cold War History); as a result, they became literally interdependent with China’s economy over the decades, something that never happened with the Soviet Union, which the imperialist powers managed to isolate economically from the very beginning;

>If the West admits China is socialist, then it automatically admits it didn’t win the Cold War or, to be more precise, that it won the First Cold War only, in a strict sense of war between nation-states, not in the greater context of the war against socialism. It would be the admission to their own peoples that they lied in the 1990s, when they claimed to have won the existential war against socialism. This prestige cannot go to waste in the West, so they keep the lie that China is just a capitalist nation-state with the now famous “authoritarian” model of government (i.e. they have the right material base but the wrong superstructure).

>My prediction is that capitalism will ultimately not be able to win the Second Cold War, and that, bar nuclear extinction of the entire human species, socialism will prevail in a long transition that will probably take one century or two to be consolidated.


Sounds more like a retardpost. Wage labor and production for exchange is capitalism. And that's what China has.


no analysis of the system of economic reproduction at all, no analysis of how surplus is produced and distributed

only some surface level superstructure shit

as expected from ogre brainletpol lol


i think this >>480365 originated in the comment-section from thenextrecession blog, so not from ogre


File: 1713282610770.jpg ( 64.52 KB , 1181x493 , Jap-neutrality-incomming.jpg )

Japan moves towards neutrality, while the US gets stuck in another Middle eastern bugaloo.


File: 1713674239926.mp4 ( 2.67 MB , 1280x720 , godspeed.mp4 )

>a war right on Russia's door-step that Russia didn't want
Politically fucktarded toddler.
>The Russian Federation however won Round 2
In massacring & decomminising as much people (who are now forced conscripts so datsokaey) as possible.
>they proved that Russia still is a super power shithole that can not even destroy a sizable & the most impoverished country of Europe
That is correct, yes.
>without major consequences to it self
Hundreds of thousands of casualties, penal battalions, tons of imported mercenaries & utterly brainless assaults as an amalgamation of Chechnya & WW1 prove it better than anything.

Lakhta fags get the boolet in the first order, along with TsIPSO cucks.


File: 1714088476542.png ( 30.34 KB , 500x823 , dollar-stick.png )

Who would win ?
China's carrot or the US's stick ?


lol get people to abandon the US even faster. based comrade trump is doing anti imperialist accelerationist praxis


File: 1715855757878.jpg ( 56.71 KB , 921x739 , China siezes the means to ….jpg )

kek the Chinese have a sense of humor


Russia already did this


yes, although the circumstances were slightly different, the neocons went inverted iron curtain with sanctions, banishing western companies from Russia. The Russians technically just took over abandoned businesses.

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