>>483437Yes conventional politicking math is that the opposition party gains momentum during bad times such as the present. And in a governing coalition of 2 or more parties, social democrats and socialists tend to loose out if they pair up with neo-libs.
So your prediction may be correct and they'll hand over the reigns to le Pen.
However i wouldn't say it's set in stone. There might be other factors.
Consider that this neo-lib political dominance coincided with western geo-political dominance. This dynamic began during the later years of the Soviet Union with waning geo-political influence. And it really took off when the Soviets dissolved. Clearly the west has lost geo-political dominance now.
Another factor for neo-lib political dominance might be the wage differentials between the west and the rest of the world. Neo-liberal political strength appears to correlate somewhat with big international wage differences. Those wage differences have shrunk recently.
This new neo-lib technocrat will be the one holding the stick when the Russians finish off Ukraine, probably with a ww2 style total victory, because western diplomacy is not operational atm and likely fail at negotiating a deal. His ruling class constituency will demand military intervention, and that is something the French population will not tolerate, and then he might fizzel out like Macron.
To be fair i don't really know how big of a role these external factors play. I'm just pointing out that material conditions have somewhat changed. And it's no longuer certain that the political dynamics of the last 40 to 50 years still apply.