>>443203Emissions have fallen within nations, though globally they were still rising at a pretty typical rate before COVID stalled them. The core is capable of dropping emissions, it’s the periphery that needs cheap fossil fuels for further development. But I think if the core can band together and increasingly shift the global market (through national and international regulations) towards artificially excluding fossil fuels while bolstering renewables and other carbon neutral tech, then there is a trade dynamic where they start extracting more from the periphery by forcing them to acclimate to new global standards of consumption, which they hold the keys to. China has tried to front run the west on that strategy because it’s a massive unified market that is significantly planned by the state, so they can have a big and focused industrial strategy. So China uses Belt and Road and it’s burgeoning high value tech and manufacturing industries to produce more eco-market oriented commodities. Meanwhile, political turmoil between nations in the west (because they are separate nations run by liberal democracies after all) means that the capitalists who are more focused on building a global market around eco-tech and the transition off of fossil fuels are being forced into conflict with the capitalists who either feel trapped in fossil fuel investments or otherwise are so myopic that they just want to keep investing in that area for the mid-term to make out like bandits before the collapse of the industry. But China’s increasing competitiveness in eco-tech is causing more urgency in the various state actors, which could trigger a Cold War esque industrial race to corner the global carbon neutral market.
There are absolutely capitalists who have a long view towards molding markets, they know the shape of the market is managed by the state. But just knowing that is half the battle, because the state’s policy is still largely downstream of capital interests, so it usually takes some overwhelming force to push the state to break for one set of capital interests over another (in the most recent classic and large example, the dispute between the slavers and the industrialists in America). So western capital interests are struggling because there is less unity there, but China is a massive unified market that has a longer view, and so it may push the west to unify more quickly for economic and political self-preservation. If it does it in time, then the larger part of the world market may suddenly set stricter standards (again, you could analogize it to the end of slavery in the major markets) that result in strong arming the smaller players to abide or be excluded from trade. The trick for the west or China is to already have the industry in place to excel at that game, so that when the rules are changed everybody who is still reliant on fossil fuels is forced to buy from the guys setting the rules of the market, creating opportunity for unequal trade and increasing global extraction that will make the big gambit all worth it.